Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 2.248425 2.388635 2.536937 2.706139 2.894664 3.099221 3.339267
2025-07-27 2.074205 2.271458 2.491043 2.756071 3.070682 3.436714 3.901677
2025-08-03 1.929247 2.154708 2.414310 2.739923 3.144283 3.639798 4.309628
2025-08-10 1.818632 2.061767 2.349081 2.720564 3.199114 3.811734 4.686375
2025-08-17 1.722313 1.975758 2.281519 2.686742 3.224958 3.940286 5.012522
2025-08-24 1.640990 1.901168 2.220584 2.652980 3.242876 4.053763 5.325533
2025-08-31 1.585328 1.854156 2.189803 2.653717 3.303768 4.228699 5.750510
2025-09-07 1.542324 1.819975 2.172212 2.668872 3.383258 4.435479 6.254953
2025-09-14 1.482290 1.760395 2.117317 2.628023 3.377112 4.509940 6.547008
2025-09-21 1.426506 1.703616 2.062872 2.583613 3.360872 4.564824 6.810377
2025-09-28 1.373986 1.648831 2.008293 2.535277 3.334130 4.598557 7.037885
2025-10-05 1.356542 1.639732 2.015046 2.574867 3.444046 4.867417 7.768233
2025-10-12 1.339766 1.631339 2.022998 2.617680 3.564387 5.172332 8.656283
2025-10-19 1.324887 1.624766 2.032932 2.663726 3.693659 5.510434 9.717191
2025-10-26 1.292161 1.592161 2.004108 2.648385 3.718730 5.657522 10.369573
2025-11-02 1.260737 1.560164 1.974651 2.630068 3.736675 5.792249 11.031352
2025-11-09 1.227298 1.524180 1.937884 2.598064 3.727937 5.872247 11.570779
2025-11-16 1.195817 1.489956 1.902365 2.566103 3.716645 5.945328 12.116121
2025-11-23 1.175182 1.470441 1.887729 2.566800 3.763846 6.146956 13.130742
2025-11-30 1.159359 1.457227 1.881823 2.581149 3.836840 6.414579 14.487294
2025-12-07 1.130401 1.424238 1.844995 2.542467 3.807347 6.447989 15.035766
2025-12-14 1.101916 1.391220 1.807118 2.500390 3.768625 6.455879 15.499001
2025-12-21 1.073720 1.357969 1.767947 2.454566 3.719897 6.435220 15.849542